The People Speak

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By Aasim Sajjad Akhtar

pakistan-elections.jpgPakistan has not had many elections in its 60 year history, and those that have taken place have typically been mired by various irregularities. Arguably this election has been the most dubious of all; for almost a year the sitting regime has attempted to coerce, co-opt and manipulate its way to an outcome of its liking. On election day, it became apparent just how elaborate pre-poll rigging was — many who went to vote found that they were among the approximately 15 million registered voters who were arbitrarily removed from official rolls; meanwhile 7 million enjoyed duplicate votes. Then there was the relatively low turnout. Whether because of fear or disillusionment, a majority of Pakistanis did not come out to vote (although it is worth noting that in recent elections low turnouts have been the norm.

But when all was said and done, regardless of whether they feel that their voices will be heeded in the long run, the people of Pakistan spoke loud and clear. Quite remarkably, every major political figure associated with the Musharraf regime was roundly defeated, but for the major exception of the MQM in urban Sindh and some stand-alone victories for PML-Q and MMA incumbents. The PML-N enjoyed a quite astonishing revival while the PPP and ANP also emerged as big winners.

 

What stood out most was the margin of loss for most government candidates. Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed, for example, one of the major figures in the Musharraf dispensation, and a victor in Rawalpindi in six successive general elections, was routed by PML-N candidates in two constituencies. Chaudhry Shujaat Husain lost badly in Sialkot, and more surprisingly, in Gujrat. Maulana Fazl-ur-Rahman lost his home seat in D I Khan by almost 30,000 votes.

 

When the results started trickling in, there was a sense amongst most ordinary people that some semblance of justice had been done. A message had been conveyed to a deeply unpopular regime — most of all to its figurehead Pervez Musharraf — that it did not have a mandate to rule, that it had failed miserably to meet people’s basic needs, and that it is time for change.

 

In a country where the urban elite and intelligentsia have often claimed that military modernizers are a better bet than the messiness of democracy, the present election proves that Pakistanis do want to have a say, and that given a chance to speak, they make their case in a devastatingly effective yet simple way. The election process was deeply flawed, and many believe that a more radical change is necessary than that which elections can possibly produce, but in any case, the elections have proven that the people’s mandate is essential for the running of a modern state.

 

It is important to contextualize exactly the process through which the people’s mandate was articulated on February 18. Arguably the Musharraf regime had been quite unpopular for a long time before March 2007, but it was only at that point that a clear and coherent demand for change was raised in the shape of the lawyer-led movement to restore the chief justice. When the CJ traveled by road from Islamabad to Lahore, Abbotabad and Faisalabad, it became clear that people wanted change; they came out in their hundreds of thousands, if only because they wanted to support a figure that they perceived to be voicing their own disaffection with the government.

 

When Musharraf imposed emergency in November, the anti-government sentiment intensified, even though working people did not necessarily join the protests of lawyers and activists. Then Benazir Bhutto was brutally murdered; even those who are not die-hard Bhutto supporters were shocked and aggrieved and almost everyone agreed that the establishment was responsible. And then the final nail in the government coffin was the atta, electricity and gas crises that pushed working people to the brink of total ruin.

 

The election result then should be thought of as the culmination of a year-long struggle to dislodge the incumbent regime. In fact some might argue that this struggle has not targeted only Musharraf & co. but the prevailing political system itself. In the recent past election results have partially reflected the manipulations of the state but also a cynical patronage-based logic of politics in which votes are effectively repayment for favours that candidates have done for their constituents. If this had been the pattern again in this election, the PML-Q and MMA would have won handsomely. But they were thrashed. In other words, to some extent, this was a vote for an idea, however, vague, of change.

 

Of course in most cases, voters reinstated many who have been in power before. This reflects the fact that in most cases the only alternative to a pro-Musharraf candidate was not a fresh face, or a new party, but those who have been outsiders over the past 8 years, namely the PML-N, the PPP and the ANP. This is why it is important not to be carried away with what the election results mean. Indeed, ordinary Pakistanis are probably very realistic about their rejection of the current status quo; they do not expect radical changes, but they wanted to punish Musharraf and his allies in any case.

 

Having said this, voters have thrown down the gauntlet to the big winners in these elections, and particularly the two big parties. Remember that the PML-N and PPP have repeatedly claimed to have been chastened by their past experiences and recognize the need to do things differently this time around. Their respective leaderships must be cognizant of the urgent need to build upon the events of February 18.

 

On the one hand they must know that the election result is, in many ways, a mandate for them to really take on the military. If instead, they buckle to the demands of GHQ — and arguably just as importantly the United States — the many possible gains from the politicization that has taken place over the past year will be lost. On the other hand, they must accept that serious policy changes are necessary if they want to avoid being swept away by a tidal wave of anti-government sentiment in the way that the Musharraf regime has in the not too distant future. For example, free market orthodoxy of the kind championed by Shaukat Aziz will likely subject working people to even more acute hardship whilst not necessarily achieving macroeconomic stability.

 

In the complex negotiations that will take place in the days to come, the PML-N and PPP must make sure not to lose the goodwill they have regained by virtue of their stance against a deeply unpopular military regime. The initial period will be crucial, and they would do well to worry about the Pakistani people first and the ‘international community’ later. It would not be wrong to suggest that this is their last chance for redemption.

 

The writer is a political activist associated with the People’s Rights Movement. He also teaches colonial history and political economy at LUMS.

Email : amajid@comsats.net.pk

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One Response to “The People Speak”

  1. Anwaar on February 20th, 2008 5:42 am

    The result is a stinging rebuke for Musharraf, whose popularity has plunged since he initiated a confrontation with the country’s judiciary and lawyers last March, followed by emergency rule late last year. This is the beginning of his end.

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Anwaar’s articles appear simultaneously here at Truth Spring and at Soul Vibes in The Pakistan Tribune.


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